Thank you to everyone who tuned into my live video! Join me for my next live video in the app.
In our most recent session, we outlined our current investment trajectory, the evolving macroeconomic landscape, and a specialized opportunity for our limited partners to access the pre-IPO market. Below is a comprehensive look at how we are positioning the fund for the 2026 financial year.
The Pre-IPO Opportunity: SpaceX and Beyond
We are currently seeing significant interest in private companies nearing their public debut, particularly SpaceX.
1. How the Sidecar Structure Works
For these opportunities, we utilize a sidecar vehicle—essentially a carve-out of the main portfolio.
The Sourcing: We work with U.S. broker-dealers who facilitate liquidity for early investors and employees with fully vested shares.
LP Commitment: Limited Partners (LPs) can commit up to 75% of their total investment in the hedge fund toward sidecar opportunities.
Minimum Entry: Each “print” or bid must be for at least $100,000.
Timeline: Once a bid is submitted, it typically takes two to three weeks to secure the stock.
2. The Case for SpaceX
SpaceX is of particular interest due to its recent acquisition of xAI and its evolving deal with Tesla. Current indications suggest the company may be floated as early as September or October 2026.
3. Risks and Considerations
Liquidity Lock-up: Investors must be prepared for a one-to-two-year block where capital cannot be redeemed until the stock floats on an exchange.
Profit Target: We only pursue these sidecars if we estimate at least a 60% profit, matching the minimum return profile of our main vehicle.
Macroeconomic Outlook: A “Now Case” for 2026
Our analysts are tracking several key markets to inform our broader strategy.
Global Growth: The IMF projects global GDP growth at 3.1% for 2026.
The U.S. Economy: We expect U.S. GDP growth of 2.9%, with inflation anticipated at 2.7%—notably above the 2% target.
International Markets: The UK, Europe, and India remain stable. Our partners in India report a largely favorable budget with emerging pre-IPO opportunities.
Innovation vs. Policy: While political shifts and new Fed appointments generate noise, we believe private innovation remains the true driver of the U.S. market, rather than government policy alone.
Portfolio Strategy: The Barbell Model
We continue to manage the portfolio using a barbell model backed by eight specific factors (including eco-efficiency and integrity).
Anchors and Essentials
We focus on “necessities” within the AI ecosystem: semiconductors, power, and telecom.
Caterpillar: We are maintaining and potentially increasing our weight here, specifically due to their growth in power and energy segments tied to AI data centers.
Alphabet (Google): While we note red flags regarding regulatory scrutiny and search volume competition from ChatGPT, we are moving Google to our long book following strong earnings.
MasterCard: Despite market shocks from interest rate policy changes, we remain profitable and are staying put.
The Short Book
We are increasing our short positions by approximately 1% on companies we believe are fundamentally sound but currently overpriced:
Tesla
Meta
NVIDIA
Performance Targets
For the 2025 financial year, we are currently at a 70% return. Looking ahead to 2026, our target remains 75% annual returns, with a guaranteed “floor” or minimum delivery target of 60% gross.
